Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
1.1 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.1 miles South-West of Lake Berryessa
38.5769°N, 122.2355°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 06:26:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
521h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.3 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
8.9 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d5c218985e2738b190cfc5a0f058fb928a84a2eb12426c090411ad78ee35f11b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.58--122.24-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 13:21:06 PST
Source Batch
20260802_050807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.