Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
54.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
54.7 miles South-West of Point Arena
38.5977°N, 124.6265°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 05:12:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
525h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
154.9 km
29.9 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
4.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
20.9 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 0.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
32f39859ffa442dbab7b8be4a7a7ce3dc461334c80c775c20c840e0a1e19b731
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.60--124.63-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 07:42:46 PST
Source Batch
20260807_232851_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 20:34:54.161848+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.