Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
52.8 miles South-West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
52.8 miles South-West of Mendocino
38.9920°N, 124.6954°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 18:37:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
581h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
122.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
30.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 1.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fd78dba0bd991adf2c6896530487a1c7824cd48788c43c2a9e34df20dec367cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.99--124.70-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 13:21:06 PST
Source Batch
20260802_050807_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 02:23:45.708030+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.