Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
5.8 miles South-West of Philo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.8 miles South-West of Philo
38.9997°N, 123.5111°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 13:27:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
43.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
22.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.9 km
Pred. 12.1 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
e39c8c12f365cb29589af19cd6bc201518cbf3d00ef0e4d5f67725ae9a9db02a
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.00--123.51-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 19:15:42 PST
Source Batch
20260826_133320_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 19:15:43.237778+00:00
Amendment History
run_tag
2026-08-26 19:15:42.718503+00:00
2026-08-26T23:37:30.295815+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-27 13:27:05.369000+00:00
2026-08-27T16:20:51.329
"pipeline re-ingest"