Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
49.7 miles South-West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
49.7 miles South-West of Mendocino
39.0021°N, 124.6379°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of August 2026
Aug 25, 2026 21:58:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
592h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
9.9 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.96
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.4 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 1.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
23d39ebdb09023c9793029620dab096a7f3c5fdef6c0401c80794388c4b0c796
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.00--124.64-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_214050_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.