Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
10.7 miles South-West of Williams
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South-West of Williams
39.0125°N, 122.2305°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 23:43:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
401h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
11.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
16.5 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
360c9c0c7763dfa4688efc4951ea09812cadfdb600b11685ce99dfb31fea9e0a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.01--122.23-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 05:51:50 PST
Source Batch
20260811_213727_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 05:51:51.941012+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.