Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
4.9 miles North-East of Tahoe City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles North-East of Tahoe City
39.2249°N, 120.0895°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 07:27:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
0.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M1.99 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
ea14b47c910cd72784896e7ee1fc5ad953529af17fdcc664548e79b70221183c
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.22--120.09-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 29, 2026 10:41:50 PST
Source Batch
20260829_064257_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-29 10:41:51.520523+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-30 07:27:54.126000+00:00
2026-08-30T13:11:38.147
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-29 10:41:50.855421+00:00
2026-08-29T22:26:18.452449+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"