Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
12.9 miles North-West of Williams
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.9 miles North-West of Williams
39.2963°N, 122.3052°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 23:07:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
37.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.07
Predicted M2.77 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.1 km
Pred. 5.3 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
000c77c1ecb567a3b9e981b063efd6ffb73128baf2338cf0ddabe38f38d59b07
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.30--122.31-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 03:58:55 PST
Source Batch
20260826_175516_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 03:58:55.544538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.