Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
43.1 miles West of Mendocino
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
43.1 miles West of Mendocino
39.3098°N, 124.6060°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 01:30:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
569h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
119.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
27.4 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b2eed7836f86221168f2ff4d873a2d3efd292b11b6f9acf7328ef8dbb1ad24d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.31--124.61-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 08:15:36 PST
Source Batch
20260804_000218_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.