Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
5.4 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.4 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3280°N, 123.0080°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 17:59:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
93h 36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
18.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
42.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
865aafb19bd0de6aea0e9cdcc2d1c340ba8dee008b1b21240e50b3e134625684
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.33--123.01-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 20:23:01 PST
Source Batch
20260822_113206_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 20:23:02.816868+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.