Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
18.2 miles South-East of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.2 miles South-East of Fallon
39.3383°N, 118.4843°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of August 2026
Aug 21, 2026 04:20:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
246h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
44.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
27.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.62
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
21.6 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6103bbe0b7635dcad79b9ced91db36c1ef4bc63509fd047ccad146d518ff9df1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.34--118.48-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 21:47:53 PST
Source Batch
20260810_133321_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-09 05:48:04.143084+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.