Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.1 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.1 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3354°N, 122.8643°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of August 2026
Aug 18, 2026 15:52:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
100h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
61.0 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
36.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 0.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7a588758e283cbad34bbe25f32e440fdf435ca0af44dbd64fa364f9d9ed61181
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.34--122.86-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 14, 2026 10:56:00 PST
Source Batch
20260814_023945_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 20:52:25.733806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.