Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
23.8 miles North-East of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.8 miles North-East of Clear Lake
39.3515°N, 122.5610°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 11:01:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
63.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
34.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 12.1 km vs actual 1.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
0c20dc5209871312eb4e7e318fc863f1100e7459c483f52291c6fe0c8e141491
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.35--122.56-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 25, 2026 20:12:04 PST
Source Batch
20260825_142610_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-25 20:12:05.105178+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-26 11:01:05.797000+00:00
2026-08-26T11:01:05.797
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-25 20:12:04.684915+00:00
2026-08-26T00:43:14.812501+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"