Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
23.0 miles North-East of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.0 miles North-East of Clear Lake
39.3505°N, 122.5934°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 20:49:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
33.3
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
53.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
15.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f84b6fd809fe128c91822bda08c68a2f46d88ff23e8be23d11b5f3f2c616efda
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.35--122.59-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 11:38:38 PST
Source Batch
20260827_055552_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 11:38:39.310265+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
depth_km 10.0 10
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-27 11:38:38.609737+00:00 2026-08-27T11:38:38.609737+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 39.3505 39.3525
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 04:38 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-27 20:49:16.629000+00:00 2026-08-27T20:49:16.629
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 09:04 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
depth_km 10.0 10
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 09:04 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-27 11:38:38.609737+00:00 2026-08-27T16:04:28.186633+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 27, 2026 09:04 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-27 20:49:16.629000+00:00 2026-08-27T20:49:16.629
"pipeline re-ingest"
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