Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
21.6 miles North of Clear Lake
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.6 miles North of Clear Lake
39.3546°N, 122.7038°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 23:07:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
104h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.29
Predicted M3.09 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
26.7 km
Pred. 15.8 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
707b15e3330041ce3a83fe307b0cb867d55f254d90b46ccfa42162e52faebcad
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.35--122.70-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 14:42:20 PST
Source Batch
20260818_201318_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 14:42:21.618085+00:00
Amendment History
run_tag
2026-08-18 14:42:20.366578+00:00
2026-08-19T06:23:21.108063+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
event_time
2026-08-22 23:07:14.250000+00:00
2026-08-22T23:07:14.250
"pipeline re-ingest"