Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.2 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.2 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3531°N, 122.8459°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 09:49:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
115h 34m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
32.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
b53bd5cc990735bd30a37cc0127819b0646d836cf68abc6ae8cdf3c35ee67481
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.35--122.85-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 23, 2026 14:15:14 PST
Source Batch
20260825_112345_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-23 14:15:15.182691+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 23, 2026 11:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 23, 2026 11:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 14:15:14.124122+00:00 2026-08-23T18:37:10.723130+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 08:41 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 08:41 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 14:15:14.124122+00:00 2026-08-25T15:41:22.694006+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 13:12 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 13:12 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 14:15:14.124122+00:00 2026-08-25T20:12:04.684915+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
View Track Record Live Predictions