Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
14.5 miles South of Sierra City
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.5 miles South of Sierra City
39.3650°N, 120.5596°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of August 2026
Aug 17, 2026 10:53:03 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
89h 33m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
133.4 km
8.4 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
31.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.64
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
24.4 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 8.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
201719fc02c7e0121423efad20c14085893bd5f15070a439f00942fd25f72747
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.37--120.56-t10341
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 13, 2026 17:20:00 PST
Source Batch
20260813_090349_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-13 10:16:23.842110+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.