Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
11.1 miles West of Princeton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.1 miles West of Princeton
39.3742°N, 122.2221°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 23:50:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
415h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
64.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
12.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.86
Predicted M3.06 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
13.4 km
Pred. 10.7 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
76427cd09777c3eac7f42d29cf864e48cb84709e32673063e60ddfaa0b3108b7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.37--122.22-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 16:26:08 PST
Source Batch
20260812_081140_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 16:26:18.474426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.