Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.7 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.7 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3663°N, 122.8580°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 09:49:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
106h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.

Distance Error
31.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
2.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.44
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.5 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 5.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
f5a9dc4355a2cb2de4b47eff0acd3d4939afc0d7ef816bb8378f133e067cf7a4
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.37--122.86-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 23, 2026 22:58:38 PST
Source Batch
20260825_155533_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-23 22:58:38.748308+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 24, 2026 05:27 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-24T12:27:48.748641+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 05:27 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 39.3663 39.3659
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 05:27 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 14:33 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 14:33 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 39.3663 39.3659
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 14:33 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-24T21:33:44.311801+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 19:05 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-25T02:05:55.328776+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 19:05 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 23:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 39.3663 39.3659
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 23:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-25T06:37:07.718171+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 23:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 17:43 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 39.3663 39.3659
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 17:43 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 09:49:53.334000+00:00 2026-08-28T09:49:53.334
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 25, 2026 17:43 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-26T00:43:14.812501+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
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