Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
13.6 miles East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.6 miles East of Potter Valley
39.3826°N, 122.8647°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 21:06:26 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
112h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
66.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 0.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
77f5c7b8fe3795dc5513beaf9e7965e7ff24d54721b125955b82f0d5805d898f
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.38--122.86-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 15, 2026 04:22:16 PST
Source Batch
20260815_170124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-15 04:22:17.835354+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-19 21:06:26.552000+00:00
2026-08-19T21:06:26.552
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-15 04:22:16.844712+00:00
2026-08-16T01:17:41.733769+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"