Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
28.0 miles West of Fort Bragg
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
28.0 miles West of Fort Bragg
39.4170°N, 124.3290°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of August 2026
Aug 19, 2026 01:45:04 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
113.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
27.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 14.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
eaf44c0243ee964a4782eece0f36e58b62b524ddefa1ad4da3c016c6c15258fd
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.42--124.33-t10342
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 18, 2026 01:52:07 PST
Source Batch
20260817_045547_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-18 01:52:08.440284+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.