Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
12.8 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.8 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.4356°N, 122.9150°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of August 2026
Aug 16, 2026 10:43:17 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
104h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
69.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
14.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.04
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.1
- 0.04 over limit
Depth Error
18.2 km
Pred. 15.7 km vs actual 2.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
63b088422b474a964f0de780612ed3f0b348976090f4655a15ce97a164dd8c17
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.44--122.92-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 02:19:37 PST
Source Batch
20260811_180506_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 22:47:24.252004+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.