Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.6 miles North-West of Gridley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.6 miles North-West of Gridley
39.4607°N, 121.7597°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 19:26:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
123.1 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
7.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
14.5 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ce5e5521f32d304cef26c7413649c188dd06a2f54bf0eb41ad96633d59847ff3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-39.46--121.76-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 12:57:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_032821_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.