Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
12.2 miles South-West of Orland
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles South-West of Orland
39.5864°N, 122.2896°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 16:18:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
57.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.3 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
e14e86c13d96a853d78b5e4988061a21920149a8fabc3cb7c502f32eadfeed5f
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-39.59--122.29-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 16:01:53 PST
Source Batch
20260822_054324_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 16:01:54.259851+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.