Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
10.8 miles South-East of Chester
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles South-East of Chester
40.1735°N, 121.1376°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 19:14:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
12.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
201.7 km
76.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
41.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.79 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
17.9 km
Pred. 12.1 km vs actual 5.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
fced49eeb72436c58b2b8522e37d10b3b5b026999f4f324bb2804003b8d0516b
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.17--121.14-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 05:18:48 PST
Source Batch
20260825_190152_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 05:18:48.780489+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.