Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
30.6 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
30.6 miles West of Weott
40.2221°N, 124.4840°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 18:19:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
653h 22m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
67.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
56.4 h
8.4 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.98
Predicted M3.92 vs actual M4.9
Depth Error
31.3 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 17.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9b49053d0947aaebb42690c05430801afe5b9926d3ee450ef8a5225e1cc0a5c1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.22--124.48-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260729_053430_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.