Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
33.5 miles South of Lewiston
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
33.5 miles South of Lewiston
40.2324°N, 122.7973°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 03:19:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
649h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
82.8 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
17.7 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.12
Predicted M3.92 vs actual M2.8
- 0.12 over limit
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 14.3 km vs actual 10.9 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2851946da41a4bb7d3345cfe1ce37703ce1c0c22a700902df9065b359a26dd6d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.23--122.80-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_133753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.