Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
49.1 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
49.1 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2295°N, 124.7179°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 05:12:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
532h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
123.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
9.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
47.5 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 26.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
aeeee284b47daa29ae0184a726239a002f04ca77c4077dee6655818e0eff7af4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.23--124.72-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 00:18:15 PST
Source Batch
20260807_160327_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.