Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
37.6 miles West of Weott
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
37.6 miles West of Weott
40.2360°N, 124.6230°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 11:59:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
502h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
117.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
47.5 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 26.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
108884fb1bb9c0ab5f20ee8e19c8ec9b602f3d9c9b85e97e145b408d9dc5c3d6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.24--124.62-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 13:08:18 PST
Source Batch
20260807_045412_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 03:53:30.040541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.