Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
44.0 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
44.0 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2711°N, 124.6246°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 11:59:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
510h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
114.7 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
32.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
47.5 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 26.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51a65450dd0d877c050bc1b62298eaffacf791797c6092eebe487379123f3e35
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.27--124.62-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_212525_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.