Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
44.2 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
44.2 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2705°N, 124.6313°W
Forecast Time Window
29th of August 2026
Aug 29, 2026 15:28:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
21.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
589h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.2 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
4.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.76
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
47.5 km
Pred. 21.6 km vs actual 26.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
af9c5f9d28ce0734749a7299e08363565db82feb38acfded181068b159f84512
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.27--124.63-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 02:18:38 PST
Source Batch
20260804_180437_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.