Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
43.4 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
43.4 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2864°N, 124.6364°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 18:37:10 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
584h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
115.5 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
19.6 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.36
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
22.7 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 15.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2b9e5e2384b5987f063e0beb7c5acbdbdb3ce0b3c7df9977a75bfffcfb77b0ec
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.29--124.64-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 09:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260802_013935_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.