Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
9.7 miles South-West of Anderson
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.7 miles South-West of Anderson
40.3697°N, 122.4495°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 07:06:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
105.9 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
26.5 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.85 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 10.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
9d49f25a41bab21a869db2f12057e58c3ec2a3fe36c6b6d8481328250184d487
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.37--122.45-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 07:16:01 PST
Source Batch
20260821_205522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 07:16:02.008629+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.