Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
5.3 miles North of Hat Creek
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles North of Hat Creek
40.8917°N, 121.4782°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of August 2026
Aug 27, 2026 15:04:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
10.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
3h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
257.8 km
132.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 1.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
0e928da0e4f36adb37d48da5c4a4d69209e21ceacdde33772d7829d63292c890
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.89--121.48-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 11:38:38 PST
Source Batch
20260827_012655_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 11:38:39.310265+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.