Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
20.1 miles East of Ravendale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.1 miles East of Ravendale
40.9065°N, 120.0490°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 08:17:55 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.0 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
10.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
11h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
194.7 km
69.7 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
5.1 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.6 km
Pred. 10.0 km vs actual 6.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
8e3306cb708153c88bbf861e44012ffa1b34098d6070c2a283fe9184eb0e921a
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.91--120.05-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 27, 2026 20:30:34 PST
Source Batch
20260827_102210_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-27 20:30:35.855108+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.