Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
19.3 miles North-East of Ravendale
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.3 miles North-East of Ravendale
40.9190°N, 120.0734°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of August 2026
Aug 28, 2026 00:55:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
29h 40m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
197.2 km
72.2 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
3.8 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
7.7 km
Pred. 1.7 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
af0ac1549e801b31c98e44ae3877e431c558ee4e273f22781f4788c497eb39b7
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.92--120.07-t10346
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 26, 2026 19:15:42 PST
Source Batch
20260826_175516_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-26 19:15:43.237778+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 26, 2026 16:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-26 19:15:42.718503+00:00 2026-08-26T23:37:30.295815+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 26, 2026 16:37 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 00:55:46.261000+00:00 2026-08-28T03:49:30.389
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 26, 2026 20:58 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
longitude -120.0734 -120.0731
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 26, 2026 20:58 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-26 19:15:42.718503+00:00 2026-08-27T03:58:55.045925+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 26, 2026 20:58 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 40.919 40.9182
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 26, 2026 20:58 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-28 00:55:46.261000+00:00 2026-08-28T03:49:30.389
"pipeline re-ingest"
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