Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed

No Match Found

The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.

Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.9 miles South-West of Fall River Mills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.9 miles South-West of Fall River Mills
40.9378°N, 121.5316°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of August 2026
Aug 24, 2026 11:39:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 41m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result

This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.

Distance Error
237.8 km
112.8 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
24.4 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 15.1 km vs actual 1.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
dbb2548546452a884e7959253ad5140da49ea5474fae8dca00352d07cd0085c2
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.94--121.53-t10344
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 23, 2026 22:58:38 PST
Source Batch
20260823_213628_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-23 22:58:38.748308+00:00
Amendment History
Aug 24, 2026 00:53 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
longitude -121.5316 -121.5324
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 00:53 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
event_time 2026-08-24 11:39:49.439000+00:00 2026-08-24T19:26:29.871
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 00:53 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
run_tag 2026-08-23 22:58:38.180424+00:00 2026-08-24T07:53:48.933220+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"
Aug 24, 2026 00:53 PST canonical_correction by pipeline
latitude 40.9378 40.9392
"pipeline re-ingest"
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