Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
24.9 miles North-West of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
24.9 miles North-West of Imlay
40.9542°N, 118.4088°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 06:47:00 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
112.6 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
12.0 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
10.0 km
Pred. 5.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca7fae8ea9736e59a86145765e21b673269b0d09fa45647c62eef6efeed073a5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-40.95--118.41-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 05:56:27 PST
Source Batch
20260804_202429_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 05:56:28.792256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.