Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.8 miles South-West of Fall River Mills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-West of Fall River Mills
40.9694°N, 121.5577°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of August 2026
Aug 26, 2026 05:17:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
9h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
239.1 km
114.1 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
17.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.1 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 15.1 km vs actual 1.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
78363b6d2c3e4500e5235719c1433fd36078a7824a58aede56a3400668a380b6
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.97--121.56-t10345
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 25, 2026 20:12:04 PST
Source Batch
20260825_142610_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-25 20:12:05.105178+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-26 05:17:08.875000+00:00
2026-08-26T05:17:08.875
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-25 20:12:04.684915+00:00
2026-08-26T00:43:14.812501+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"