Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
17.7 miles West of Winnemucca
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.7 miles West of Winnemucca
40.9901°N, 118.0744°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of August 2026
Aug 30, 2026 01:43:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Confidence Score (EPS)
10.0
Earthquake Potential Score - higher = greater confidence
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
114.4 km
Within 125 km tolerance
Time Error
141.7 h
93.7 h over 48 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.84
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
17.9 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 9.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
8d54ee6ee9ace7d281e739dd6c3d8939a307300351b7f2a4e4281b5c7085fb52
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-40.99--118.07-t10347
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 29, 2026 10:41:50 PST
Source Batch
20260829_064257_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-29 10:41:51.520523+00:00
Amendment History
event_time
2026-08-30 01:43:25.436000+00:00
2026-08-30T07:27:11.289
"pipeline re-ingest"
run_tag
2026-08-29 10:41:50.855421+00:00
2026-08-29T22:26:18.452449+00:00
"pipeline re-ingest"