Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
3.5 miles West of Fall River Mills
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.5 miles West of Fall River Mills
41.0176°N, 121.5033°W
Forecast Time Window
22nd of August 2026
Aug 22, 2026 15:05:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
12h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
310.3 km
185.3 km over 125 km limit
Time Error
8.2 h
Within 48 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.04 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.5 km
Pred. 14.4 km vs actual 1.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
5799891ab5f7830a9abcd1ec77c9253d4353dd40ddd1c0eb224d263f403cbed2
Computed at ingestion from the original prediction values (ID, latitude, longitude, magnitude, event time, depth, run tag) and stored immutably. Any field changed after ingestion is recorded in the amendment log below.
Prediction ID
loc-41.02--121.50-t10343
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 22, 2026 02:51:29 PST
Source Batch
20260821_163059_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-22 02:51:29.733006+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.